Critical Minerals & Mining
Key Points
- 1.Gold demand value reached a record US$193 billion in Q1 2026, up 74% year-on-year, despite only a 2% volume increase, driven by record-high gold prices and strong bar and coin investment, according to the World Gold Council [1].
- 2.USGS and NASA expanded the world's largest airborne hyperspectral survey to map critical minerals from 65,000 feet, while a USGS assessment identified an estimated 2.3 million metric tons of undiscovered lithium in the Appalachian region — potentially sufficient to replace imports for a century or more [3].
- 3.The World Bank Group announced a scaling up of mining sector lending from approximately $3 billion (FY21–25) to an estimated $17 billion (FY26–30), citing projected near-doubling of demand for copper, lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare earth elements by 2040 [5].
- 4.Gulf aluminium production fell 6% in March 2026 to an average of 15,963 tonnes per day, down from 16,997 tonnes per day in February, due to attacks on production facilities and raw material shortages attributed to the US-Iran conflict [6].
- 5.Preliminary audit findings revealed a reported 20,000-tonne output gap at Codelco, Chile's state copper miner, prompting calls for tighter government oversight, while a rare earth project near Sudbury, Canada was highlighted as hosting 56.6 million indicated tonnes of total rare earth oxides [7].
Executive Summary
- •This is the initial baseline report, compiled from sources collected during the reporting period. Future reports will track changes and trends relative to this baseline.
- •The critical minerals sector is experiencing significant geopolitical and financial inflection points in mid-2026, with record gold investment values, accelerating domestic US supply chain mapping, and a landmark World Bank investment commitment collectively reshaping the global mining landscape.
- •Geopolitical conflict — particularly the US-Iran war — is already producing measurable supply chain disruptions, with Gulf aluminium production declining 6% in March 2026, underscoring the vulnerability of industrial metal supply chains to regional instability [6].
- •The United States is aggressively pursuing domestic critical mineral security through USGS-NASA airborne surveys and confirmed large-scale lithium deposits in Appalachia, supported by the National Mining Association's advocacy for sourcing materials 'from the mine up' [3] [8].
- •Governance risks at state-owned miners such as Codelco, combined with resource nationalism challenges in Africa noted by the World Bank, highlight structural vulnerabilities in critical mineral supply chains alongside promising North American rare earth development opportunities [7] [5].
Market Trends
Record Gold Demand Value Amid Shifting Investment Patterns
Gold demand reached 1,231 tonnes in Q1 2026, a modest 2% year-on-year volume increase, but the value of demand surged to a record US$193 billion — up 74% year-on-year — driven by record-high gold prices. According to the World Gold Council, bar and coin investment drove gains while ETF buying slowed in Q1, and central banks continued purchasing in healthy size. Jewellery demand volumes remained under pressure amid record-high prices. Global physically backed gold ETFs returned to inflows in Apri…
US Critical Minerals Mapping and Domestic Supply Push
The USGS and NASA announced an expansion of the world's largest airborne hyperspectral survey to map critical minerals from 65,000 feet, reported on May 12, 2026. Separately, a USGS assessment released April 28, 2026 found that the Appalachian region of the eastern United States contains an estimated 2.3 million metric tons of undiscovered, economically viable lithium, potentially sufficient to replace imports for a century or more. These developments align with the National Mining Association's…
World Bank Scales Up Mining Investment to $17 Billion
The World Bank Group announced a significant scaling up of its mining sector lending, with projected support rising from approximately $3 billion during FY21–25 to an estimated $17 billion in FY26–30. The institution noted that demand for key minerals such as copper, lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare earth elements is expected to nearly double by 2040, requiring over $500 billion in new mining investment by 2040 and $1.7 trillion across mining, processing, and infrastructure by 2050. The World…
Gulf Aluminium Production Hit by Geopolitical Disruption
The International Aluminium Institute reported that attacks on production facilities and dwindling stocks of raw materials have had a serious impact on Gulf aluminium producers. Production in Gulf countries fell by 6% in March 2026 to an average of 15,963 tonnes per day, down from 16,997 tonnes per day in February, with the IAI attributing the decline to impacts of the US-Iran war on aluminium production figures. This supply disruption highlights the vulnerability of critical industrial metal su…
Codelco Governance Concerns and North American Rare Earth Advances
Preliminary audit findings raised fresh governance concerns at Codelco, Chile's state copper miner, over a reported 20,000-tonne output gap, with Chile seeking tighter oversight of the company as of May 13, 2026. [7] In a separate development, a rare earth project in Sudbury, Canada was highlighted as hosting 56.6 million indicated tonnes of total rare earth oxides, with its CEO describing the project's proximity to infrastructure as a competitive advantage. Together, these developments undersco…
Competitor Trends
US Critical Minerals Mapping Accelerates with USGS-NASA Airborne Survey
The U.S. Geological Survey and NASA announced an expansion of the world's largest airborne hyperspectral survey to map critical minerals, conducting flights at 65,000 feet as of May 12, 2026. This follows a series of low-level geological imaging flights across multiple states including New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, and Maine throughout 2025-2026. Additionally, USGS reported on April 28, 2026 that the Appalachian region of the eastern United States contains an estimated 2.…
Geopolitical Risk Disrupts Gulf Aluminium Production Amid US-Iran Conflict
The International Aluminium Institute reported that attacks on production facilities and dwindling stocks of raw materials have had a serious impact on Gulf aluminium producers. According to IAI figures published in April 2026, production in Gulf countries fell by 6% in March to an average of 15,963 tonnes per day, down from 16,997 tonnes per day in February, with the decline attributed to the impacts of the US-Iran war on aluminium production. This represents a significant supply chain disrupti…
World Bank Scales Up Mining Investment to $17 Billion Amid Resource Nationalism Concerns
The World Bank Group is dramatically scaling up its lending for mining projects, with expected investment rising from approximately $3 billion during FY21–25 to an estimated $17 billion in FY26–30, according to the organization's metals and minerals strategy page. Over the past decade, the World Bank Group has funded approximately $10 billion in mining projects across more than 75 resource-rich countries. The institution is simultaneously grappling with the challenge of resource nationalism in A…
Gold Demand Hits Record Value as Investment Surges on Uncertainty
According to the World Gold Council's Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends report, total quarterly gold demand reached 1,231t, a 2% increase year-on-year, while the value of demand surged to a record US$193 billion, up 74% year-on-year. Global physically backed gold ETFs returned to inflows in April 2026, adding US$6.6 billion, led by Europe at US$3.7 billion, with Asia contributing US$1.8 billion and North America US$1 billion. For the full year 2025, total gold demand hit a new all-time high of 5,002t w…
Codelco Governance Concerns and North American Rare Earth Projects Emerge
Preliminary audit findings reported on May 13, 2026 raised fresh governance concerns at Codelco, Chile's state copper miner, over a 20,000-tonne gap in output figures, with Chile seeking tighter oversight of the company. [7] Separately, a rare earth project in Sudbury, Canada was highlighted on May 14, 2026, hosting 56.6 million indicated tonnes of total rare earth oxides, described by its CEO as located 'in a pizza delivery zone,' suggesting proximity to existing infrastructure. These developme…
Regulatory Trends
US Critical Minerals Mapping Expands with NASA Partnership
The U.S. Geological Survey and NASA announced an expansion of the world's largest airborne hyperspectral survey to map critical minerals, with flights conducted at 65,000 feet as of May 12, 2026. Separately, USGS reported on April 28, 2026 that the Appalachian region of the eastern United States contains an estimated 2.3 million metric tons of undiscovered, economically significant lithium deposits, potentially sufficient to replace imports for a century or more. These developments follow the In…
World Bank Scales Up Mining Investment to $17 Billion
The World Bank Group has announced a significant scaling up of its lending for mining and minerals projects, with expected disbursements rising from approximately $3 billion during FY21–25 to an estimated $17 billion in FY26–30. The institution frames this expansion around three pillars: policy and governance reform, infrastructure enablement, and private sector mobilization. The World Bank notes that demand for key minerals such as copper, lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare earth elements is e…
Gulf Aluminium Production Hit by US-Iran War Disruptions
The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported in April 2026 that attacks on production facilities and dwindling stocks of raw materials have had a serious impact on Gulf aluminium producers. According to IAI data, production in Gulf countries fell by 6% in March 2026 to an average of 15,963 tonnes per day, down from 16,997 tonnes per day in February. The IAI noted that these figures represent early visible impacts of the US-Iran conflict on aluminium supply chains, with final March figure…
Codelco Governance Concerns Amid Output Audit Gap
Preliminary audit findings have raised fresh governance concerns at Codelco, Chile's state copper miner, after a reported 20,000-tonne gap was identified in output figures as of May 13, 2026. The findings are prompting Chile to seek tighter oversight of the state-owned enterprise. This development highlights ongoing geopolitical and operational risks within critical mineral supply chains, particularly for copper, which is a key input for electric vehicles and energy infrastructure. [7]
North American Rare Earth and Responsible Mining Initiatives Advance
A significant rare earth project near Sudbury, Canada, hosting 56.6 million indicated tonnes of total rare earth oxides, was highlighted in May 2026 as a notable domestic supply development. Concurrently, the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) recognized mining companies for excellence in responsible mining, with Eldorado Gold's Lamaque Complex receiving the TSM Gold Leadership Award under the Towards Sustainable Mining initiative, which requires companies to measure and publicly report environm…
Important Changes
USGS & NASA Launch Airborne Critical Minerals Mapping Survey
NewThe U.S. Geological Survey and NASA announced an expansion of the world's largest airborne hyperspectral survey to map critical minerals from 65,000 feet, announced on May 12, 2026. Separately, USGS reported that the Appalachian region of the eastern United States contains an estimated 2.3 million metric tons of undiscovered, economically viable lithium, potentially sufficient to replace imports for a century or more. [3]
World Bank Scales Up Mining Investment to $17 Billion for FY26–30
NewThe World Bank Group announced a major increase in mining sector lending, with projected support rising sharply from $3 billion during FY21–25 to an estimated $17 billion in FY26–30. The institution noted that demand for key minerals such as copper, lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare earth elements is expected to nearly double by 2040, requiring over $500 billion in new mining investment by 2040 and $1.7 trillion across mining, processing, and infrastructure by 2050. [5]
Gulf Aluminium Production Falls 6% Amid US-Iran War Disruptions
NewAccording to the International Aluminium Institute, attacks on production facilities and dwindling stocks of raw materials have had a serious impact on Gulf aluminium producers. Production in Gulf countries fell by 6% in March 2026 to an average of 15,963 tonnes per day, down from 16,997 tonnes per day in February, reflecting the impacts of the US-Iran war on regional supply chains. [6]
Codelco Output Under Scrutiny Over 20,000-Tonne Production Gap
NewPreliminary audit findings have raised fresh governance concerns at Codelco, Chile's state copper miner, over a reported 20,000-tonne gap in output figures. The findings are prompting Chile to seek tighter oversight of the company. [7]
Gold Demand Value Hits Record $193 Billion in Q1 2026
NewThe World Gold Council's Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends report revealed that total quarterly gold demand reached 1,231 tonnes, a 2% increase year-on-year, while the value of demand surged to a record US$193 billion, up 74% year-on-year. Bar and coin investment drove gains, central banks continued purchasing in healthy size, and global physically backed gold ETFs returned to inflows in April, adding US$6.6 billion. [1] [2]
Insights & Takeaways
- 1.The 74% surge in gold demand value — despite only a 2% volume increase — signals that price-driven value creation, rather than volume growth, is becoming the dominant driver in precious metals markets, with European and Asian ETF inflows in April 2026 suggesting continued investor demand for safe-haven assets [1].
- 2.The World Bank's planned $17 billion mining investment for FY26–30 — nearly six times its FY21–25 level — reflects an institutional recognition that current mining investment is structurally insufficient to meet the estimated $1.7 trillion required across mining, processing, and infrastructure by 2050, creating significant opportunity for governance-compliant projects [5].
- 3.The identification of 2.3 million metric tons of lithium in the Appalachian region, combined with the USGS-NASA airborne survey expansion, suggests the US domestic critical minerals resource base may be substantially larger than previously assessed, potentially reducing long-term import dependency [3].
- 4.The 6% drop in Gulf aluminium output due to US-Iran conflict demonstrates that geopolitical risk is no longer a theoretical concern but an active supply chain disruption factor for industrial metals, warranting strategic stockpiling and supply diversification by downstream manufacturers [6].
- 5.The convergence of Codelco governance scrutiny over a 20,000-tonne output gap and the emergence of a 56.6 million indicated tonne rare earth project near Sudbury underscores a broader shift toward North American supply chain development as reliability concerns mount around state-owned producers in traditional mining nations [7].
Sources
World Gold Council Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends report showing 1,231 tonnes total demand, record US$193 billion value up 74% YoY, and April 2026 ETF inflows of US$6.6 billion.
Related: Precious Metals & InvestmentSupporting data on full-year 2025 gold demand reaching 5,002 tonnes with annual value of US$555 billion, and continued central bank purchasing.
Related: Precious Metals & InvestmentUSGS-NASA airborne hyperspectral survey expansion announced May 12, 2026, and April 28, 2026 assessment of 2.3 million metric tons of undiscovered lithium in Appalachian region.
Related: Critical Minerals Supply ChainSupporting data on domestic critical mineral assessments and the Interior Department's 2025 List of Critical Minerals released in November 2025.
Related: Critical Minerals Supply ChainWorld Bank announcement of scaling mining lending from $3 billion (FY21–25) to $17 billion (FY26–30), with mineral demand projections and resource nationalism challenges in Africa.
Related: Mining Investment & FinanceIAI April 2026 report on Gulf aluminium production falling 6% in March to 15,963 tonnes/day from 16,997 tonnes/day in February, attributed to US-Iran conflict impacts.
Related: Geopolitical Risk & Supply ChainPreliminary audit findings reporting a 20,000-tonne output gap at Codelco as of May 13, 2026, and rare earth project near Sudbury with 56.6 million indicated tonnes of total rare earth oxides.
Related: Mining Operations & GovernanceNMA advocacy for domestic supply chain security, noting the mining sector generates $133 billion in annual revenues and supports 488,000 direct jobs.
Related: Critical Minerals Supply ChainMAC recognition of mining companies for responsible mining excellence, including Eldorado Gold's Lamaque Complex receiving the TSM Gold Leadership Award.
Related: Responsible Mining InitiativesBGS partnership with the Geological Survey Department of Zambia to build national capacity and improve data accessibility for critical minerals development, reported April 2026.
Related: Critical Minerals Supply Chain