Critical Minerals & Mining — 2026年8月2日 月次レポート
Critical Minerals & Miningのニュース＆アップデート — すべての記述に一次ソースのリンク付き。
重要な発見
エグゼクティブサマリー（5件）
- •July 2026 was the month Western critical minerals strategy shifted from aspiration to execution, with billions in capital deployed across rare earth refining, magnet manufacturing, and mine development — but a fundamental sequencing flaw emerged: upstream supply is being built faster than downstream Western demand infrastructure, routing US-funded production to Asian buyers.
- •Rare earth geopolitics intensified on all fronts: the IEA put a $6.5 trillion price tag on Chinese export restriction risk, Sweden elevated mining to a national security interest, USA Rare Earth executed a transatlantic consolidation in a single week, and a CSIS analyst concluded China's clampdown has 'backfired' by accelerating allied diversification.
- •Copper entered a physical availability crisis — not merely a price story — as Codelco's output collapsed, the IEA flagged sulphuric acid as a chokepoint for a seventh of global mine output, and BHP reported further Chilean declines, while prices swung between near-record highs and geopolitical-driven retreats.
- •The critical minerals complex is fragmenting into divergent commodity trajectories: copper and rare earths face structural scarcity, lithium faces 2027 surplus fears as mine restarts accelerate, and aluminium's Gulf crisis premium evaporated despite physical output remaining approximately 40% below pre-war levels.
- •Permitting speed, workforce depth, and downstream demand infrastructure — not capital availability — have emerged as the binding constraints on Western supply chain build-out, with Canada's six-year permitting disadvantage versus Australia, the NMA's talent pipeline warning, and the US rare earth distribution gap all pointing to the same systemic gap.
今回の要点（8件）
- 1.The IEA quantified Chinese rare earth export restriction risk at $6.5 trillion and called for multilateral stockpiling of 11 'high-risk' materials — the first time a major multilateral institution attached a dollar figure of this magnitude to rare earth concentration risk, establishing a new policy anchor comparable to the G7's 60% supplier concentration target [7].
- 2.Western rare earth supply chain investment moved decisively from announcement to execution: Iluka's Eneabba refinery surpassed 50% completion with its A$1.65 billion government loan in active drawdown, Energy Fuels' $1.9 billion Vacuumschmelze acquisition progressed toward an early-2027 close, and USA Rare Earth completed a $2.8 billion Serra Verde merger and acquired a 13.6% stake in French processor Carester within a single week [7] [9].
- 3.A structural distribution gap emerged as a critical flaw in Western rare earth strategy: US-funded production is predominantly flowing to Asian buyers — MP Materials selling NdPr oxide through Sumitomo to Japanese customers, Energy Fuels planning exports to South Korea — because downstream US magnet manufacturing capacity has not yet developed, meaning supply-side investment is outpacing demand-side industrial infrastructure [8].
- 4.Copper supply deteriorated on multiple fronts: Codelco's output fell 18.3% year-on-year in May, BHP reported a 5% Q4 slip, the IEA warned that over a seventh of global copper mine output is hostage to sulphuric acid supply constraints, and DRC tax authorities sealed Glencore's Kamoto Copper offices — while prices approached record highs driven by geopolitical risk premiums rather than near-term physical tightness [6].
- 5.Gulf aluminium output remained approximately 40% below its pre-war February 2026 level of 16,997 tonnes per day throughout the month, though by late July the acute price premium had vanished — a divergence between financial market pricing and physical supply reality that warrants continued monitoring [4] [6].
- 6.Sweden declared mining a national security interest on 2026-07-23, exploring a state-owned investment company — the most explicit national security designation of mining by an EU member state this cycle — while the World Bank disclosed plans to scale mining sector lending from $3 billion in FY21–25 to an estimated $17 billion in FY26–30, reshaping where new global mining capacity will be built [7] [12].
- 7.Codelco's new chairman pushed the Maricunga lithium project start to 2034 — abandoning the 2030 target — while simultaneously reporting an 18.3% copper output decline, creating a compounding strategic vacuum in Chilean state mining across two critical commodities [6].
- 8.The top 50 mining companies shed $228 billion in market capitalization in Q2 2026 as gold retreated below $4,000/oz from its January intraday record above $5,500/oz, though central banks continued accumulating gold at an average of 1,000 tonnes per year — double the prior decade's pace — providing a structural demand floor [6] [16].
市場動向
Western Rare Earth Supply Chain Transitions from Commitment to Execution — With a Distribution Gap
Across July, rare earth supply chain investment moved from announcement to active construction and consolidation. Iluka's Eneabba refinery exceeded 50% completion with its A$1.65 billion government loan in drawdown [10], Energy Fuels' $1.9 billion Vacuumschmelze acquisition progressed toward early-2027 close [9], and USA Rare Earth executed a transatlantic consolidation within a single week. However, a structural distribution gap persisted throughout the month: US-funded production is flowing pr…
Copper Shifts from Price-Risk Story to Physical Availability Crisis
The month saw copper's supply outlook deteriorate across multiple simultaneous vectors. Codelco's May output fell 18.3% year-on-year, BHP reported a 5% Q4 slip, the IEA warned that over a seventh of global copper mine output is hostage to sulphuric acid supply constraints, and DRC tax authorities sealed Glencore's Kamoto Copper offices [6]. Wild weather disrupted Chilean mines and ports. Prices approached record highs — China's imported copper premium hit $100/tonne for the first time in over a …
Gold: Structural Central Bank Floor Beneath Volatile Investor Sentiment
Gold's trajectory across July illustrated a bifurcated market. After surging to record highs above $5,500/oz intraday in January, gold pulled back to approximately $4,000/oz by late June — down roughly 7% year-to-date — and the top 50 mining companies shed $228 billion in Q2 market capitalization as a result [6]. Global gold ETFs shed $2 billion in May, with Asia and North America leading outflows [1]. Against this volatility, the Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 confirmed central banks ha…
Gulf Aluminium Crisis: Physical Supply Remains Depressed as Financial Premium Evaporates
Gulf aluminium output remained approximately 40% below its pre-war February 2026 level of 16,997 tonnes per day throughout the month, with April data showing 10,989 tonnes per day and the IAI repeatedly warning the worst is still ahead [4]. By late July, however, Mining.com reported that the aluminium Gulf disruption premium had vanished after surging to a 4-year high of $3,787.50/tonne in early June [6]. The divergence between financial market pricing and physical supply reality — premium gone,…
Lithium Diverges from Rare Earth and Copper Tightening Narrative
Lithium prices sank to a five-month low on 2026-07-22 as mine restarts stoked 2027 surplus fears, diverging sharply from the tightening narrative in copper and rare earths [6]. This divergence highlights that the critical minerals complex is not moving in unison: lithium faces oversupply risk while copper and rare earths face structural scarcity, creating asymmetric investment and policy challenges across the battery supply chain. Government stockpiling plan releases did not stabilize prices, il…
Multilateral and Bilateral Finance Reshapes Where New Mining Capacity Is Built
The World Bank disclosed plans to scale mining sector lending from $3 billion in FY21–25 to an estimated $17 billion in FY26–30 — a near-sixfold increase — with Latin America highlighted as a primary beneficiary [12]. Simultaneously, a Switzerland–Indonesia bilateral metals and rare earths cooperation agreement entered into force on 2026-07-16, and Canada-Japan talks on joint mining, off-take, and stockpiling arrangements continued [7]. The architecture of critical minerals finance is diversifyi…
競合動向
Rare Earth Consolidation Accelerates: Acquisition-Led vs. Organic-Build Strategies Diverge
July saw the sharpest divergence yet between acquisition-led and organic-build strategies in the non-Chinese rare earth race. Energy Fuels is buying VAC's established 1,000-customer relationships for $1.9 billion rather than building greenfield capacity [9], while USA Rare Earth executed a $2.8 billion Serra Verde merger and a 13.6% Carester stake within a single week to build a transatlantic processing chain [7]. MP Materials, by contrast, is advancing organically via a federal pricing agreemen…
Codelco's Compounding Strategic Retreat Creates Openings Across Copper and Lithium
Codelco's new chairman pushed the Maricunga lithium project start to 2034 — abandoning the 2030 target — while the company's copper output fell 18.3% year-on-year in May [6]. This simultaneous contraction across two critical commodities at the world's most significant state-owned copper producer creates competitive openings for BHP (pursuing Cerro Colorado restart with $1.5 billion), KGHM (launching an $8.55 billion 'KGHM 2.0' greenfield plan), and lithium producers including SQM and Albemarle. …
Host-Country Sovereign Risk Emerges as Structural Vulnerability for Allied-Nation Processing Hubs
Malaysia's review of Lynas's $96 million Pentagon rare earth supply deal escalated from an announced review in Week 2 to an active parliamentary probe by Week 3 [7]. This progression across the month confirms that offshore processing hubs — even in allied nations — carry regulatory fragility that purely domestic facilities do not. The risk is distinct from Chinese supply risk and requires a different mitigation strategy: either onshoring processing to domestic facilities or securing host-country…
Vale Governance Transition Introduces Strategic Uncertainty at a Critical Juncture
Vale's chairman Stieler was pushed out by pension fund Previ in Week 2, and shareholders elected Manuel Lino Oliveira as the new chairman on 2026-07-22 [17]. The governance disruption — driven by domestic institutional shareholder activism rather than geopolitical or operational forces — at one of the world's largest iron ore and nickel producers introduces uncertainty into Vale's strategic direction during a period of elevated commodity prices and geopolitical supply chain pressure. Any shift i…
Diversified Majors Broaden Into Critical Minerals Adjacent to Core Operations
Rio Tinto handed Sovereign full control of the Malawi Kasiya graphite project, positioning it as a potential non-Chinese supplier of rutile, graphite, and rare earth products, while Peabody pushed into rare earths as part of a broader energy security shift [13]. Barrick acquired a 9.9% stake in Kingfisher to accelerate drilling at the Hank copper-gold discovery, and Andrew Forrest made a $133 million tungsten bet via a 16.8% stake in EQ Resources [6]. These moves by established majors and promin…
制度・規制動向
National Security Framing of Mining Intensifies: Sweden's Designation as EU Template
Sweden declared mining a national security interest on 2026-07-23, exploring a state-owned investment company to advance the sector — the most explicit national security designation of mining by an EU member state this cycle [7]. This goes beyond the EU Critical Raw Materials Act's harmonized framework toward unilateral national security designations that could accelerate domestic project approvals. If other EU member states follow, it could create a patchwork of national security frameworks tha…
US Domestic Mineral Mapping Matures from Reconnaissance to Resource Characterization
The USGS refined its Appalachian lithium assessment to 1.43 million metric tons specifically in the southern Appalachian region — a geographically specific update to the April 28 broader estimate of 2.3 million metric tons — and conducted helicopter survey flights over the Lake Superior Basin [2]. The USGS NMIC separately published a comprehensive review finding China produced 74 of 77 tracked mineral commodities and led in 39, providing a quantitative baseline for measuring Western diversificat…
Permitting Reform Identified as the Binding Constraint on Western Supply Chain Build-Out
A PwC report found Canada takes six years longer than Australia to build a mine, prompting NRCan to launch a digital permitting hub [6]. A US mining lawyer identified permitting reform as the key bottleneck for challenging China's critical minerals dominance, and the NMA flagged permitting talks facing new hurdles [13]. South32's receipt of key US federal approval for its $2 billion Hermosa mine in Arizona on 2026-07-07 was highlighted by the NMA as a signal of the administration's push for dome…
UK and European Geological Data Infrastructure Systematically Strengthened
The UK CMIC published recommendations for the next UK criticality assessment on 2026-07-01, advancing economy-specific methodology beyond generic risk identification [5]. The BGS updated its national 3D Superficial Deposit Thickness Model incorporating rockhead elevation data for the first time, and BGS scientists contributed to a continent-wide initiative strengthening cross-border subsurface data collaboration [5]. These investments in geological data infrastructure compound in value over time…
ソース活動
先月からの変化
IEA Quantifies Chinese Rare Earth Export Restriction Risk at $6.5 Trillion
The IEA warned on 2026-07-18 that $6.5 trillion in economic value is at risk if China imposes rare earth export curbs, calling on countries to work multilaterally to stockpile 11 'high-risk' materials — the first time a major multilateral institution attached a dollar figure of this magnitude to rare earth concentration risk, establishing a new policy anchor for Western diversification strategy. [7]
USA Rare Earth Executes Transatlantic Consolidation via Serra Verde and Carester
Within a single week in late July, USA Rare Earth completed a $2.8 billion merger with Serra Verde, appointed its CEO, and sealed a 13.6% stake in French processor Carester alongside InfraVia — transforming from a single-asset US producer into a transatlantic rare earth processing entity. [7]
Sweden Declares Mining a National Security Interest
Sweden elevated mining to a national security interest on 2026-07-23 to counter Chinese dependence, with the government exploring a state-owned investment company — the most explicit national security designation of mining by an EU member state this cycle, going beyond existing EU Raw Materials Act frameworks. [7]
Energy Fuels–Vacuumschmelze $1.9 Billion Acquisition Progressing Toward Early-2027 Close
Energy Fuels' $1.9 billion acquisition of Germany's Vacuumschmelze — paying $718 million cash plus 65.853 million shares to Ara Partners — continued to progress throughout July toward an early-2027 close, with expansions planned for a South Carolina facility. VAC supplies magnets to more than 1,000 customers including General Motors. [9]
Iluka Eneabba Refinery Surpasses 50% Completion With Government Loan in Active Drawdown
Australia's A$1.65 billion non-recourse loan to Iluka Resources for the Eneabba rare earths refinery is in active drawdown, with the refinery over 50% complete and expected to reach 75% by end-2026. Iluka secured a binding four-year automotive supply agreement covering approximately 10% of planned production worth $155–$172 million. [10]
US-Funded Rare Earths Flowing to Asian Markets: Structural Distribution Gap Confirmed
A 2026-07-09 report found that US-funded rare earth production is predominantly flowing to Asian markets — MP Materials selling NdPr oxide through Sumitomo to Japanese customers, Energy Fuels planning exports to South Korea — as US magnet demand ramps up more slowly than supply. This structural gap persisted as a stable finding across all four weeks of July. [8]
South32 Arizona Hermosa Mine Clears Key US Federal Approval
South32 received key US federal approval on 2026-07-07 for its $2 billion Hermosa mine in Arizona — containing one of the world's largest undeveloped zinc deposits plus manganese essential for steel and batteries — marking a significant domestic critical minerals permitting milestone. [6]
KGHM Launches $8.55 Billion 'KGHM 2.0' Greenfield Copper Mine Investment Plan
Polish state-controlled copper and silver producer KGHM launched an $8.55 billion investment plan to build a new mine dubbed 'KGHM 2.0,' one of the largest single copper mining capital commitments of the period. [6]
Codelco Delays Maricunga Lithium to 2034 While Copper Output Falls 18.3%
Codelco's new chairman announced on 2026-07-15 that the Maricunga lithium project start has been pushed to 2034 — abandoning the 2030 target — while Chile's May copper output fell sharply with Codelco's production down 18.3% year-on-year, creating a compounding strategic vacuum in Chilean state mining across two critical commodities. [6]
Malaysia Parliamentary Probe of Lynas Pentagon Supply Deal Escalates
Malaysia's review of Lynas's $96 million Pentagon rare earth supply deal escalated from an announced review to an active parliamentary probe by 2026-07-17, confirming that host-country sovereign risk is a structural vulnerability in allied-nation rare earth processing strategies. [7]
World Bank Scales Mining Lending to Estimated $17 Billion for FY26–30
The World Bank Group disclosed that its mining sector lending is expected to grow from $3 billion during FY21–25 to an estimated $17 billion in FY26–30, making multilateral development finance a major structural force in shaping where new mining capacity is built globally, with Latin America highlighted as a primary beneficiary. [12]
Top 50 Mining Companies Shed $228 Billion in Q2 as Gold Retreats Below $4,000
Gold's retreat below $4,000/oz from its January intraday record above $5,500/oz wiped out most of mining's 2026 gains, with the world's 50 biggest mining companies losing $228 billion in market capitalization in Q2 2026. Diversified giants led by BHP staged a partial recovery, suggesting investor rotation toward scale and diversification. [6]
Gulf Aluminium Output Remains ~40% Below Pre-War Levels; Price Premium Vanishes
Gulf aluminium output remained at approximately 10,989 tonnes per day in April 2026 — a cumulative approximately 40% collapse from February 2026's pre-war level of 16,997 tonnes per day — with the IAI warning the worst is still ahead. By late July, the acute price premium had vanished after surging to a 4-year high of $3,787.50/tonne in early June, creating a divergence between financial market pricing and physical supply reality. [4] [6]
USGS Refines Southern Appalachian Lithium Estimate to 1.43 Million Metric Tons
The USGS published a geographically refined lithium assessment on 2026-06-18, identifying 1.43 million metric tons of undiscovered lithium specifically in the southern Appalachian region — an update to the April 28 broader Appalachian estimate of 2.3 million metric tons — and conducted helicopter survey flights over the Lake Superior Basin. [2]
USGS NMIC Finds China Produces 74 of 77 Tracked Mineral Commodities
The USGS National Minerals Information Center published a comprehensive review finding that of 77 mineral commodities in the USGS dataset, China produced 74 and was the world's first-ranked producer for 39 of those 74 — quantifying Chinese mineral dominance as a baseline against which Western diversification progress can be measured. [3]
US Proposes Seabed Mining Leases off American Samoa
The US Marine Mineral Administration proposed leasing two seabed mining blocks off the American Samoa coast on 2026-07-17, marking the first formal US seabed mineral leasing action and signaling that deep-sea mining is transitioning from a speculative frontier to an active instrument of US critical minerals policy. [6]
Vale Governance Transition: New Chairman Elected After Pension Fund Pressure
Vale's chairman Stieler was pushed out after pension fund Previ forced a shareholder meeting, and shareholders subsequently elected Manuel Lino Oliveira as chairman on 2026-07-22 — introducing governance uncertainty at one of the world's largest iron ore and nickel producers during a period of elevated commodity prices. [6]
Worldsteel June 2026 Steel Production: 155.7 Million Tonnes, Up 1.7% Year-on-Year
Worldsteel published June 2026 crude steel production at 155.7 million tonnes on 2026-07-23, a 1.7% year-on-year increase — reversing May's 0.3% decline — coinciding with the conclusion of the climate policy paper's extended multi-week revision cycle. May production had been 157.9 million tonnes, a 0.3% decrease versus May 2025. [11]
Lynas Revenue Miss Sends Shares to Five-Month Low
Lynas, the world's largest rare earths producer outside China, reported gross sales revenue of A$288.9 million on 2026-07-21, missing expectations and sending shares to a five-month low — raising questions about whether current rare earth prices generate sufficient cash flow for allied-nation producers to self-fund capital-intensive processing expansions. [7]
Sweden Grants 25-Year Concession to Norra Kärr Heavy Rare Earth Deposit
Sweden granted a 25-year concession to the Norra Kärr heavy rare earth deposit, said to have the capacity to supply all of Europe's annual dysprosium requirements, adding a European domestic supply node to the Western rare earth diversification architecture. [7]
Japan Announces Heavy Rare Earth Seabed Deposit Discovery
Japan announced on 2026-07-24 that heavy rare earths dominate a seabed deposit discovery, potentially boosting Japan's critical mineral supply and reducing reliance on China — reinforcing the emerging trend of allied nations turning to deep-sea resources as a strategic complement to terrestrial diversification. [6]
Lithium Prices Sink to Five-Month Low on Mine Restart Wave
Lithium prices sank to a five-month low on 2026-07-22 as a wave of mine restarts convinced traders the battery metal is headed back into surplus in 2027, diverging sharply from the tightening narrative in copper and rare earths. [6]
UK CMIC Publishes Recommendations for Next UK Criticality Assessment
The UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre published recommendations on 2026-07-01 for enhancements to the next UK criticality assessment, outlining improvements to better tailor the assessment to the structure of the UK economy — advancing the UK's regulatory intelligence framework from broad risk identification toward economy-specific methodology. [5]
Switzerland–Indonesia Metals and Rare Earths Cooperation Agreement Enters Force
A cooperation agreement between Switzerland and Indonesia on metals and rare earths entered into force on 2026-07-16, representing a new bilateral regulatory instrument in critical minerals governance that extends beyond traditional G7 multilateral frameworks. [7]
CSIS Concludes China's Rare Earth Clampdown 'Backfired' by Accelerating Allied Diversification
A CSIS analyst concluded on 2026-07-21 that China's rare earth clampdown has 'backfired' by uniting allies to build alternative supply chains, weakening Beijing's long-term leverage — a reframing of the geopolitical calculus that may pressure China to recalibrate its export control strategy. [7]
示唆・見るべき論点（12件）
- 1.The most consequential strategic gap revealed in July is the sequencing error in Western rare earth policy: upstream production was funded before downstream demand infrastructure existed, routing US-funded output to Asian buyers. Correcting this requires years of parallel investment in magnet manufacturing, customer qualification, and workforce development — additional government financing alone will not close the loop [8].
- 2.The IEA's $6.5 trillion rare earth risk figure is likely to function as a policy anchor in the same way the G7's 60% supplier concentration target did — once a quantified threshold exists, it creates a measurable benchmark against which stockpiling commitments, government spending, and diversification progress can be evaluated, and it elevates rare earth concentration from a sectoral procurement problem to a macro-financial systemic risk [7].
- 3.Sweden's national security designation of mining is significant as a potential EU template: if other member states follow, it could create a patchwork of national security frameworks that accelerates domestic project approvals faster than the EU Critical Raw Materials Act's harmonized process — speeding supply development while fragmenting European minerals governance [7].
- 4.The Malaysia parliamentary probe of the Lynas Pentagon deal confirms that host-country political economy must now be treated as a first-order variable in supply chain resilience assessments — not a secondary diplomatic consideration. Allied-nation processing hubs located offshore carry sovereign regulatory fragility that purely domestic facilities do not, and this risk is distinct from Chinese supply risk [7].
- 5.Lynas's revenue miss at A$288.9 million despite being the world's largest non-Chinese rare earth producer raises a systemic question: if the most established allied-nation producer cannot self-fund expansion at current prices, the entire Western rare earth supply chain build-out may be more dependent on continued government subsidies than publicly acknowledged — a fiscal risk that governments have not yet fully priced into their supply chain strategies [7].
- 6.Codelco's simultaneous copper output decline and lithium deferral to 2034 create a compounding strategic vacuum in Chilean state mining that is unlikely to be filled by the private sector on equivalent timelines given Chile's permitting environment — the net effect is a structural reduction in Chilean mineral supply growth across two critical commodities simultaneously, with no near-term remedy [6].
- 7.The IEA's warning that over a seventh of global copper mine output is hostage to sulphuric acid supply constraints introduces a secondary commodity as a critical chokepoint — supply chain resilience strategies must extend beyond the primary mineral to its processing inputs, a dimension that current Western critical minerals policy frameworks largely ignore [6].
- 8.The World Bank's near-sixfold increase in mining lending to $17 billion for FY26–30 will disproportionately benefit developing-country mineral-rich nations, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape by bringing new supply online in historically underinvested jurisdictions — with governance and ESG standards as the key variables determining whether this investment translates into stable, ESG-compliant supply flows [12].
- 9.The CSIS 'backfire' conclusion on China's rare earth clampdown reframes the geopolitical calculus: if export restrictions are accelerating allied diversification faster than they generate economic leverage for Beijing, China may face pressure to recalibrate its export control strategy — creating uncertainty about the durability of the current restriction regime that Western supply chain planners should factor into scenario analysis [7].
- 10.Canada's six-year permitting disadvantage relative to Australia, now quantified by PwC, means that capital committed to Canadian critical minerals projects today will not yield supply until the early 2030s at the earliest — making Canada a structurally late contributor to the Western supply chain build-out despite its geological endowment, and reinforcing the urgency of NRCan's digital permitting hub initiative [6].
- 11.Aluminium's Gulf disruption premium vanishing while physical output remains approximately 40% below pre-war levels signals that commodity markets may be pricing in a faster-than-expected conflict resolution that the physical data does not yet support — downstream manufacturers who reduce strategic inventory in response to the premium collapse may be exposed if the IAI's warning that 'the worst is still ahead' proves correct [4] [6].
- 12.Andrew Forrest's $133 million tungsten bet via EQ Resources is notable because tungsten is a critical mineral for defence applications that has received far less policy attention than rare earths or lithium — a high-profile strategic investor entering the space may catalyze broader institutional interest in tungsten supply chain security, a gap that current Western critical minerals frameworks have not adequately addressed [6].
信頼度サマリー
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参照ソース一覧
Published Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026 reporting gold surged to record highs above $5,500/oz intraday in January before pulling back to approximately $4,000/oz in late June; also published Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 confirming 1,000 tonnes/year average accumulation over four years.
Refined southern Appalachian lithium estimate to 1.43 million metric tons of undiscovered lithium; conducted helicopter survey flights over the Lake Superior Basin.
Published comprehensive review finding China produced 74 of 77 tracked mineral commodities and was the world's first-ranked producer for 39 of those 74.
Reported Gulf aluminium output at 10,989 tonnes per day in April 2026, a cumulative approximately 40% collapse from February 2026's pre-war level of 16,997 tonnes per day, with warnings the worst is still ahead.
Published CMIC recommendations for next UK criticality assessment; updated national 3D geological model; contributed to continent-wide subsurface data collaboration initiative.
Primary source for reporting on Energy Fuels-VAC acquisition, KGHM 2.0, South32 Hermosa approval, Vale governance, Codelco output decline, copper market developments, USA Rare Earth consolidation, Sweden national security designation, seabed mining, and aluminium premium developments.
Reported on US-funded rare earths flowing to Asian markets, IEA $6.5 trillion rare earth risk warning, Malaysia parliamentary probe of Lynas Pentagon deal, Lynas revenue miss, India-Myanmar rare earth ties, CSIS backfire conclusion, and Sweden national security designation.
Found that US-funded rare earth production is predominantly flowing to Asian markets as US magnet demand ramps up more slowly than supply; MP Materials selling NdPr oxide through Sumitomo to Japanese customers, Energy Fuels planning exports to South Korea.
Detailed Energy Fuels' $1.9 billion acquisition of Germany's Vacuumschmelze, structured as $718 million cash plus 65.853 million shares to Ara Partners, progressing toward early-2027 close.
Reported A$1.65 billion Australian government non-recourse loan in active drawdown, refinery over 50% complete, binding four-year automotive supply agreement covering approximately 10% of planned production worth $155–$172 million.
Published June 2026 crude steel production at 155.7 million tonnes, a 1.7% year-on-year increase; May 2026 production was 157.9 million tonnes, a 0.3% decrease versus May 2025; climate change policy paper underwent extended multi-week revision cycle.
Disclosed mining sector lending expected to grow from $3 billion in FY21–25 to an estimated $17 billion in FY26–30; highlighted Latin America's efforts to transform mineral wealth into development.
Highlighted South32 Hermosa permitting milestone, IEA rare earth supply risk warnings, talent pipeline as structural constraint, permitting reform as key bottleneck, and US as a 'mining sleeping giant.'
Flagged talent pipeline as a structural constraint on minerals policy; Canada-Japan critical minerals cooperation talks reported; updated Facts & Figures 2026 published.
Q2 2026 oil and gas lease sales generated $4.1 billion; issued right-of-way for Dry Creek Trona Mine; authorized Bald Mountain Mine Modification; announced multiple upcoming lease sales across Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and other states.
Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 confirmed 1,000 tonnes/year average accumulation over four years with 89% of reserve managers expecting further increases; MoU signed with Government of Ghana on artisanal and small-scale gold mining formalisation.
Reported Trump reiterating Greenland's strategic importance at NATO summit; Denmark's PM reaffirming Greenland is not for sale; Vale new chairman election; commercial actors advancing Greenland mineral projects.
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